SUSA Underestimates Indies in OH and TX polls

by bigdcdem, Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:46:53 PM EST

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/7357802

According to the AP exit poll:

"Early exit polls show independents are a sizable chunk of the electorate in presidential primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont.

In all those states except Rhode Island, Tuesday's primaries were ``open,'' meaning all voters could choose which party's contest to vote in. In Rhode Island, only registered independents could choose between parties.

The surveys for The Associated Press and television networks found self-described independents were about one in five voters in Ohio's Democratic primary, one in four in Texas, a third in Rhode Island and four in 10 in Vermont.

Exit poll results for Republican primaries were available only in Ohio and Texas. In Ohio, independents were about one in seven GOP voters, in Texas one in five."

SUSA, in its final polls for both states, estimated that Indies would be 12% in Ohio (vs. 20% in the AP exit poll) and 13% (vs. 25% in the AP exit poll).  Conclude from this what you choose.

SUSA Ohio: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=96160e3e-e0bc-44cb-8273-28a16e dbf219
SUSA TX: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=d7698664-137f-46f0-ba92-32aea4 73d72e




Tags: SUSA, poll (all tags)

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Re: SUSA Underestimates Indies in OH and TX polls (none / 0)

This could mean an Obama victory.


by American1989 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:49:01 PM EST

Re: SUSA Underestimates Indies in OH and TX polls (none / 0)

This could mean nothing. We have no turnout numbers.


by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:51:28 PM EST

Re: SUSA Underestimates Indies in OH and TX polls (none / 0)

what does that mean?


by American1989 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:52:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

ARG overestimated though. (none / 0)

They have 27% in TX and 23% in OH.

And they have Clinton leading in both polls.


by LeftistAddiction on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:52:18 PM EST

Re: ARG overestimated though. (none / 0)

Exactly.


by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:53:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG overestimated though. (none / 0)

but, what is their record though? I would like to trust ARG, but, will they be right this time??


by American1989 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:54:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Underestimates Indies in OH and TX polls (none / 0)

I think that the title of this diary is very misleading. Republicans are the ones crossing over and voting in our Primaries. Those are the crossover votes. They aren't independents. They are Democrats for a Day.


by Fleaflicker on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:56:37 PM EST

link? (none / 0)


BHO/HRC 08
by omar little on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:38:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Underestimates Indies in OH and TX polls (none / 0)

Two factors

1)Republican voting in the Dem Primary who are calling themselves independents to exit pollers

2)Early exit polls are not accurate, more Dems will vote in the evening, and the independent % will go down a little bit
 


by njc2b5 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:56:52 PM EST

Re: SUSA Underestimates Indies in OH and TX polls (none / 0)

that is true; there are still what two hours in TX and RI left?


by American1989 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:58:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Curious (none / 0)

Why are you so sure more Dems than Independents will vote after work? I'm not challenging you, I just don't really understand the logic.


by HatchInBrooklyn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:00:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA Underestimates Indies in OH and TX polls (none / 0)

Plus extra time in Ohio because of weather possibly.

EArly polls are always wrong. They are not talking about repub numbers...


by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:58:57 PM EST

Re: SUSA Underestimates Indies in OH and TX polls (none / 0)

Again, I think it's a bit late for polls and speculation. The voting is today. Either GOTV, or wait for the returns.


by mattw on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:00:01 PM EST

Re: SUSA Underestimates Indies in OH and TX polls (none / 0)

OH & TX dems are NOT automatically the same kind of Independents in earlier primary states.

This means nothing at this point.


by labanman on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:16:26 PM EST

This means nothing. (2.00 / 0)

Many "Democratic" voters consider themselves to be independent despite party registrations. That's why exit polls show a sizeable percentage of voters being "Independent" in closed primary states such as NY.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:26:55 PM EST

Ohio (none / 0)

SUSA estimates 22% non-Democrats (12% independents, 10% Republicans) in Ohio's democratic primary.


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:28:53 PM EST

Texas (none / 0)

SUSA estmiates 23% non-Democrats in Texas (10% Republican)


99% perspiration
by DaveOinSF on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:30:15 PM EST


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